Is Canada Going to Follow the U.S. Over the Cliff In Its Upcoming Election?

UPDATE WITH TWO DAYS TO GO: Looks Like Canada Will Not Go Over The Same Cliff

Latest polls show some very interesting developments in the conservative v non conservative block  .http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/cv11-poll-tracker/ Mainly votes have shifted within the non conservative block away from the Bloc & Green parties and toward the NDP.  A big block of votes seems to have also shifted away from the Liberal Party and toward the NDP.  The upshot is that together the NDP and Liberal Party have made a 7% gain in total votes now commading about 52% of the votes.  But even more interesting, while the conservative block is virtually unchanged at 37% to 38% since the 2008 election, the spread between the NDP and the Conservative block is now only 5%.  An astonishing devlopment.  It seems very clear the conservatives will not get a conservative majority..so Canada didn’t follow the U.S. over that cliff and if present trends continue to build it is very possible that Canada will have a truly pluralistic modern democarcy at the end of the day May2..or at least a mandate to  create such a thing through appointment of the  new Prime MInsiter. 

I’ll bring the champagne!!! You Bring the oysters!!!

I hope Americans are watching all this..

 

Cove Meadow April 29, 2011

Yesterday’s  no confidence vote  against Conservative P.M. Harper, which cited ethics issues and influence peddling,  will result in  new national elections on May 2nd. It was a unitedmulti-party  vote ,but its not clear that Canada will not go over the same cliff  the U.S. fell from in its recent mid term elections.  It may very well end up  with a Conservative majority in parliament.  And for the same  fundamental reason it happened in the U.S.  The poor, working and middle income people who are the majority of voters hear the words” jobs”  and “economic growth” promised by conservatives and assume it means jobs for them..growth for them.  The blue vs red electoral process is framed as a choice between services and bale outs or jobs and a chance to move ahead. Non-conservative leaders, in each of Canada’s many opposition parties,  have to start communicating that historically non-conservative   leadership has brought lower unemployment rates, faster and greater economic advances for poor working and middle class people.  Each of the opposition leaders has to start explaining to the majority of voters..the poor, working and middle income voters.. what their situation actually is right now..there is no more upward mobility, those who thought they had a foot hold in the middle class will slide back to a different standard of living and those born in poverty and their children will die in poverty.  In Canada the Red V Blue is the Conservative Party  vs.  a diverse multi party conservative opposition who happened to agree on a vote of no-confidence in Harper.. The two major opposition parties, Liberal and NDP, represent  a combined 48% of Canadian voters while 38% of Canadian voters .are Conservative Party.  In this election the Green Party  is  also  hoping to emerge strongly and the separatists are hoping the need for multi party cooperation  will give them some clout in the process. 

If the party that holds the most seats in the House of Commons still holds less than the opposition parties combined, which is a possible outcome of the May2 election,  a party leader is selected by the Governor General to lead the government, however, to attempt to create stability, the person chosen must command the support of at least one other party.

 So, if the elections do not result in a Conservative Majority, the Canadians have a second major hurdle which is to unite beyond party affiliation behind a single opposition leader that trasncends party lines.  That would be an imporhant benchmark for all the big modern democracies..to have a very pluralistic multi party parliament working for the people of Canada coordinated through a PM who rules not by party majority but multi party support. It’s a model that reforming democracies like Egypt might look to ,a model that seems most suited to modern pluralistic large democracies.I like to imagine that Canada will emerge from the May 2nd elecions with the world‘s first truly modern democracy, avibrant pluralistic democracyr that will awaken and mobilize the collective wisdom of Canada’s people and show the world’s democratic nation’s..how to do the same.

  If Canada can make it’s multi-party system work, not just for the election on May 2nd but as a working,productive multi-party parliament ( not a coalition government) that would be very hopeful for all of us.

 Cove Meadow March 26,2011 

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About lindsaynewlandbowker

Bowker Associates, Science & Research In The Public Interest, is an independent non profit providing self initiated pro bono analysis on key issues with a potential for massive adverse environmental impact . Bowker Associates has been an internationally recognized and cited voice in analysis of the Samarco failure, its consequence, and the possibilties for recovery. In 2015 Bowker Associates collaborated with globally respected geophysicist David M. Chambers to recompile global authoritative accounts of significant TSF failures in recorded history and to analyze these data in the context of gloal mining economics 1910-2010 ( Risk, Economics and Public Liability of TSF Failures, Bowker/Chambers July 2015) In 2014 Bowker Associates commissioned globally respected geophysicist and hydrogeologist Dr. David Chambers to undertake two technical works: (1) development of technical go no go criteria for vetting mine applications tp://lindsaynewlandbowker.wordpress.com/2014/01/05/a-new-statutory-regulatory-framework-for-responble-sulfide-mining-should-this-mine-be-built/ and (2) a case study of Maine's Bald Mountain, an un mined low grade high risk VMS deposit demonstrating the efficacy and accuracy of two risk assessment tools in vetting mine proposals https://lindsaynewlandbowker.wordpress.com/2014/02/28/mountain-x-would-you-issue-a-permit-to-this-mine/ In Maine, Bowker Associates has deeply engaged and been a public voice in the Searsport DCP LPG Tank, The Cianbro proposal for a Private East West Toll Road, JD Irvings rolling pipeline of Bakken crude to its plant in St. John and review of Phase II plans at The Callahan Superfund site in Brooksville, Maine, and Maine's revisitation of mining in statute and regulation... Our only “client”: is always “the pubic interest”. Our model is to focus on only one or two issues at a time so that we have a substantive command of the relevant field as our foundation for ongoing engagement. Our core work is in envirommental risk management, science and technology as well as bringing any available “best practices” models to the fore. The legal and regulatory history/best models are also a major thrust of our work in building and evaluating public policy. Director/Principal Lindsay Newland Bowker, CPCU, ARM is a recognized expert in Environmental Risk Management., Heavy Construction Risk Management and Marine and Transit Risks and has more than 3 decades of engagement in buiding public policy. Appointed by Governor Mario Cuomo to New York State Banking Board (served 1986-1996); President New York Chapter Chartered Property and Casualty Insurers; Environmental Committee, Risk and Insurance Management Society; Director, Convenor/Co-Chair Bermuda Market Briefing "From Captive to Cats" Hamilton Bermuda. Published Articles of Significance The Risk Economics and Public Liability of Tailings Facility Failures, co-authored with David M. Chambers, July 2015 Beyond. Polarization: Superfund Reform in Perspective, Risk & Insurance Managing Risk For Loss Prevention & Cost Control (Jan. 24, 1997). Lead Hazards and Abatement Technologies in Construction: A Risk Management Approach CPCU Journal 1997 Employee Leasing: Liability in Limbo Risk Management June 1 1997 Environmental Audit Privilege and the Public interest Risk & Insurance Managing Risk For Loss Prevention & Cost Control, April 1997 Asbestos:Holes In Abatement Policies Need To Be Plugged, Lloyd’s Environmental Risk International, May 1993 Editor Published Letters Evironmental Risk Management Beware of Facile Policies Like Fetal Protection Business Insurance 1995(?) High Court Review May Increase Sale of Bank Annuities Business Insurances August 8, 1995 Professional Profiles Protecting the Big Apple’s Core Managing Risk For Loss Prevention & Control December 1996 Major Career Highlights First rigorous analysis showing Relationship Between declining ore grades and TSF Failures of increasing consequence ( July 2015) FIrst Documentation that Gentrification Has Same Impacts as Unassisted Displacement from Urban Renewal Sites Direted Court Ordered EIS of FHA Mortgage Scandal Created Nation's First Homeownership Program for Low Income People (SHIP) Created Earliest Geographic Information Systems Using Defense Technology Developed By IBM Designed and Conducted Parallel Census Count to Show Systematic undercount in minority neighborhoods Documented Bias in ISO Territory Rating Plans for Private Passenger Auto Insurance Using ISO's own Rating Techniques Demonstrated Inherent Bias in Mortgage Policies of Banks With Inner City Branches Demonstrated that NY Telephones Plan for Area Code Split To accommodate anticipated cell phone demand was not efficient and would exhaust in 5 years ( which it did) Undertook First Systematic Evaluation of Child Protective Services Caseload Using Multi Variate Analyic Techniques Developed Child Protective Caseload Management and Tracking System (CANTS) and directed implementation in 4 client states including Illinois, Florida and New York Created and Ran Office of Risk Management for NYC DEP the Nations largest Water & Sewer Authority . Designed, Created and Administered Nation's First Owner Controlled Insurance Program (OCIP)for High Risk Tunneling Education Masters NYU Graduate School of Public Administration BSC New School For Social Research Maine Public Schools Deering High School
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