March 14, 2018 Stonington, Maine

contact:  Lindsay Newland Bowker ,

Lindsay Newland Bowkerm

Bowker Associates has not been able to piece together much of the history leading up to this failure nor much about the details of the two impoundments, the only tailings storage facilities for the Cadia Project which comprises 62% of Newcrest’s revenue.   In our tailings management focused work we often cite the exemplary national and provincial policies of Australia and in particular the regulatory framework of New South Wales (NSW).   While all that excellence didn’t prevent  quite a large slump in the south wall of the north impoundment, perhaps the forensics will show that NSW and national law and regulations for mining  did work to effectively minimize public consequence viz the immediate surrounding down slope community.

These are both impoundments of upstream construction. Australia  and ANCOLD have adamantly resisted any call for any form of prohibition on upstream construction or on adoption of all the Mt Polley panel recommendations as international standards.

A picture is worth a thousand words.  A big breach but  a nice neat slump of thick material.  It looks like perhaps a paste thickened deposition  and clearly no water cover.

18_03-Cadia-2-e1520841733486Aerial Photo Released By Newcrest

There was no runout or big slide so perhaps investigation will show that even without the south impoundment  the tailings would have made a nice neat slump with no run out, no liquefaction, no slide threatening or harming the downstream community.( NSW law and Newcrest business practices are insuring there is no risk of that and so far have detected no further movement in the wall)

So perhaps, hopefully, the forensics on this failure will ultimately bear out the wisdom that, as the Mt Polley panel urged, no large tailings facility should be conventional slurry and no large TSF should have a water cover during operation or have a wet closure.

Excellence in law and policy, we shall perhaps confirm, cannot achieve “zero failure” but it can perhaps consistently attain “zero public consequence”, zero  risk of harm to the surrounding community, zero public liability.

In our four tier severity rating system we have provisionally included this in the failures data base as a “3”..a minor failure meaning a runout less than 0.5k, a release of less than 100k, no deaths. It has a tentative public consequence score of “0” and that should be the aim of all practice and law.  Even if it turns out that the loss was preventable and forseeable, that will not change the severity designation nor the public consequence score.

There are questions that hopefully will be answered with full transparency through NSW’s exemplary investigation process as to whether this failure was preventable and the risk of breach discernible. How did Newcrest with everthing riding on the successful extension of mine life  from 2013 to 2030 come to still be relying on these two upstream impoundments with an original design life ending in 2013.  Was an increased rate of deposition a cause of failure.  ( Even paste needs time to settle and drain).  Newcrest apparently knew it had a tailings capacity problem and was looking at the feasibility of using the mined out Cadia Hill open pit for tailings deposition ( and is now looking to that as a way to get back into production as quickly as possible).


Newcrest Photo with long view of north and south impoundment and break (far left)

Whether it was preventable and foreseeable should matter in consequence to Newcrest and in the best of all possible worlds might have prevented the big 5% hit Newcrest has taken on its stock which will effect its entire portfolio until Cadia is back in production.

In Risk Management this would be an insurable loss ( business interruption)  and therefore a loss that could be covered through a reciprocal risk pool.  In a situation where a revenue interrupting loss occurs through no fault of, and beyond the control of the miner, there can and should be no interruption in revenue and if needed should provide  funding for repair or complete closure of the damaged facility as well as for all cleanup.  There wouldn’t need to be a hit to investors or the associated portfolio wide impacts Newcrest may be facing. ( We have no information  on what part of this may be insured .)

My advocacy, as a risk manager who has designed and managed a high risk owner controlled insurance program , OCIP, ( for NYC’s Water Tunnel construction) is that miners who actually are following best practice portfolio wide should have complete and low cost coverage for lost earnings and recovery when events that are actually accidents happen. ICMM could provide a useful leadership role or any group of miners ( eg those in the International Responsible Mining Assurance program) could form such an owner controlled insurance program.

In an OCIP the package of coverages are conventional with manuscript modifications suitable to the unique aspects of the exposure.  It can extend to all contractors and consultants as well lowering their overhead costs and thereby lowering overall costs of production .  It can include all portfolio projects which are also operated under the strict underwriting of the experience rated OCIP .

It could include as well the full costs of an unplanned closure necessitated by the failure or impairment.

Four years ago Bowker Asssociates took up this work in tailings secifically to assess whether the losses were insurable and therefore “poolable” or good candidates for an OCIP.  It became quickly apparent that the third party ( and most of the first party losses like business interruption did not meet the requirements of insureable risk”..they were all preventable, none of them acts of god or true “accidents”.

It also became apparent, because  insurers are not actively “partners” in big mine projects that there is no underwrting ..none of those monthly independent inspections and meetings with the insureds  involved.  An OCIP would build that  essential underwriting oversight  into all  covered projects.

If the OCIP ( whether as a reciprocal or through a global carrier) were large enough..covered enough of global minerals production then the participation in the OCIP would have other cost reducing , confidence inspiring benefits e.g. in issuing bonds for expansion on good terms and  meaning something in investment and investor analysis.

This is how financial assurance can and should work with respect to the liabilities, first and third party , from high consequence tailings failures.

Obviosuly the other side of the coin is that miners and project which don’t meet OCIP standrds shouldn’t be eligible for permits in the first place.  A project or a miner that can’t meet “insureable/bondable  standards” can’t possibly provide any meaningful assurance to the local community or to investors .

Financial assurance isn’t a meaningful or sensible expectation of miners and projects that are not economically sound.

The OCIP could give an extra discount for mines in jurisdictions like NSW with exemplary responsible permitting and oversight but it could still provide  coverage and sound practices whether or not the government regulatory structure is up to par.”  The OCIP could also influence governance by disallowing coverage in jurisdictions where provisions directly conflict with sound underwriting.


Back to Cadia, it is nor clear yet that this failure was unpreventable and unforseeable but investors and the local community can have confidence that ANCOLD, Australian Law and NSW law and regulations will arrive at a fully evaluated responsible conclusion and insure a safe ultimate disposition for these impoundmets and for Cadia’s long term tailings management.

That can’t be said of failures in most government jurisdictions.



April 24,2018 Stonington, Maine



Cadia has gained regulatory approval to use 200 m of the mined out pit ad is awaiting approval for use of the other 300m . Approaching capacity at still operating north dam  which failed, Cadia had been exploring the in pit storage option with regulators but had not secured approval. This approval allows a restart  and investors have responded with an improvement in per share trading value.

In pit storage is a deposition method of last resort post failure or on reaching usable capacity at existing TSF’s.  It has not,until the world reached a global tailings capacity , been considered a desirable or permanent option for tailings management and presents many technical and safe containment hazards especially where he old pit has a flow through of groundwater and eventually with respect to overflow unless the pit is filled.  Tailings Info has a good basic summary of the pros and cons of in-pit storage

The technology and protocols for “best practice” are still emerging.  To our knowledge,the first major mine plan for which in-pit storage has been proposed at the outset is at the Langer-Heinrich Uranium facility , Paladin Energy Ltd (Paladin)  located in the Republic of Namibia in southern Africa where SRK’s 2015 plan addresses and proposes long term solutions.

We have not reviewed NSW regulatory standards and regs on in pit storage but in general their approval  deserves greater confidence than most jurisdictions.


Imperial Metals resumed operations at Mt Polley with regulatory permission for temporary use of a mined out pit.  Those tailings are now being re watered  to facilitate pumping back to to the now buttressed failed dam. At the Fundao , still not approved for restart after the worst tailings failure in recorded history, Vale had contributed adjacent lands at its pit for deposition.  As we have written elsewhere at this website with supporting cited documentation, there was not adequate tailings capacity for the $3.2 billion expansion at Samarco .  Vale’s own consultants confirmed that as a significant red flag before Vale approved  the expansion.

These three failures, indeed most catastrophic failures, point to a global tailings capacity problem. where life of facility, height of facility, rate of deposition are exceeded and pushed by the hugely greater volume of tailings wastes due to falling grades and tighter margins.


Cadia East PC1 according to Macquarie hurdles standards is a reach in terms of economic viability as assembled by “The Angry Geololgist” (TAG), a reputable if somewhat colorful, tracker of the quality of drill reports.



Investors who simply bounce back  when operations resume and an immediate tailings plan is approved  would be well advised to  undertake a more thorough  independent analysis  of economic viability of the present mine plan and technical viability of the proposed tailings .




















About lindsaynewlandbowker

Bowker Associates, Science & Research In The Public Interest, is an independent non profit providing self initiated pro bono analysis on key issues with a potential for massive adverse environmental impact . Bowker Associates has been an internationally recognized and cited voice in analysis of the Samarco failure, its consequence, and the possibilties for recovery. In 2017 we partnered with Daveid M. Chambers, a world leader in responsible mining, in our third joint work on the economics of tailings failures. Bowker, L.N.; Chambers, D.M. In the Dark Shadow of the Supercycle Tailings Failure Risk & Public Liability Reach All Time Highs. Environments 2017, 4, 75. A peer reviewed journal published investigation of the cowboy economics of the supercycle and the resulting escalation on the number and magnitude of catastrophic failures. In 2016 we parnered with Dave Chambers in our 2nd joint work together looking at root causes of failures at a conference . Bowker, L.N.; Chambers, D.M. Root Causes of Tailings Management Failures: The Severity of Consequence of Failures Attributed to Overtopping 1915–2015. In Proceedings of the Protections 2016, Fort Collins, CO, USA, 14 June 2016. [Google Scholar] In 2015 Bowker Associates collaborated with geophysicist David M. Chambers to recompile global authoritative accounts of significant TSF failures in recorded history and to analyze these data in the context of global mining economics 1910-2010 ( Risk, Economics and Public Liability of TSF Failures, Bowker/Chambers July 2015) The third annual update of this globally referenced and used compilation was just released at Researchgate. ( In 2014 Bowker Associates commissioned globally respected geophysicist and hydrogeologist Dr. David Chambers to undertake two technical works: (1) development of technical go no go criteria for vetting mine applications tp:// and (2) a case study of Maine's Bald Mountain, an un mined low grade high risk VMS deposit demonstrating the efficacy and accuracy of two risk assessment tools in vetting mine proposals In Maine, Bowker Associates has deeply engaged and been a public voice in the Searsport DCP LPG Tank, The Cianbro proposal for a Private East West Toll Road, JD Irvings rolling pipeline of Bakken crude to its plant in St. John and review of Phase II plans at The Callahan Superfund site in Brooksville, Maine, and Maine's revisitation of mining in statute and regulation... Our only “client”: is always “the pubic interest”. Our model is to focus on only one or two issues at a time so that we have a substantive command of the relevant field as our foundation for ongoing engagement. Our core work is in envirommental risk management, science and technology as well as bringing any available “best practices” models to the fore. The legal and regulatory history/best models are also a major thrust of our work in building and evaluating public policy. Director/Principal Lindsay Newland Bowker, CPCU, ARM is a recognized expert in Environmental Risk Management., Heavy Construction Risk Management and Marine and Transit Risks and has more than 3 decades of engagement in buiding public policy. Appointed by Governor Mario Cuomo to New York State Banking Board (served 1986-1996); President New York Chapter Chartered Property and Casualty Insurers; Environmental Committee, Risk and Insurance Management Society; Director, Convenor/Co-Chair Bermuda Market Briefing "From Captive to Cats" Hamilton Bermuda. Published Articles of Significance The Risk Economics and Public Liability of Tailings Facility Failures, co-authored with David M. Chambers, July 2015 Beyond. Polarization: Superfund Reform in Perspective, Risk & Insurance Managing Risk For Loss Prevention & Cost Control (Jan. 24, 1997). Lead Hazards and Abatement Technologies in Construction: A Risk Management Approach CPCU Journal 1997 Employee Leasing: Liability in Limbo Risk Management June 1 1997 Environmental Audit Privilege and the Public interest Risk & Insurance Managing Risk For Loss Prevention & Cost Control, April 1997 Asbestos:Holes In Abatement Policies Need To Be Plugged, Lloyd’s Environmental Risk International, May 1993 Editor Published Letters Evironmental Risk Management Beware of Facile Policies Like Fetal Protection Business Insurance 1995(?) High Court Review May Increase Sale of Bank Annuities Business Insurances August 8, 1995 Professional Profiles Protecting the Big Apple’s Core Managing Risk For Loss Prevention & Control December 1996 Major Career Highlights First rigorous analysis showing Relationship Between declining ore grades and TSF Failures of increasing consequence ( July 2015) FIrst Documentation that Gentrification Has Same Impacts as Unassisted Displacement from Urban Renewal Sites Direted Court Ordered EIS of FHA Mortgage Scandal Created Nation's First Homeownership Program for Low Income People (SHIP) Created Earliest Geographic Information Systems Using Defense Technology Developed By IBM Designed and Conducted Parallel Census Count to Show Systematic undercount in minority neighborhoods Documented Bias in ISO Territory Rating Plans for Private Passenger Auto Insurance Using ISO's own Rating Techniques Demonstrated Inherent Bias in Mortgage Policies of Banks With Inner City Branches Demonstrated that NY Telephones Plan for Area Code Split To accommodate anticipated cell phone demand was not efficient and would exhaust in 5 years ( which it did) Undertook First Systematic Evaluation of Child Protective Services Caseload Using Multi Variate Analyic Techniques Developed Child Protective Caseload Management and Tracking System (CANTS) and directed implementation in 4 client states including Illinois, Florida and New York Created and Ran Office of Risk Management for NYC DEP the Nations largest Water & Sewer Authority . Designed, Created and Administered Nation's First Owner Controlled Insurance Program (OCIP)for High Risk Tunneling Education Masters NYU Graduate School of Public Administration BSC New School For Social Research Maine Public Schools Deering High School
This entry was posted in ANCOLD, Bowker Associates Science & Research In The Public Interest, Cadia Tailings Failure, dam failue envronmental costs, Environmental Risk Management, Financial Capacity Standrds Mines, financial risk and public liability, hurdle charts, ICCM Tailings Management Report, in pit tailings storage, Lindsay Newland Bowker, Measuring Magnitude of Consequence TSF Failures, Mine Risk Management, mineral economics, minerals waste management, Mining Financial Feasibility, Rate of Raise for Upstream Tailings Dams, Risk & Public Liability of Tailings Dams, Risk Avoidance & Loss Prevention Metallic Mining, Tailings Dam Failures, tailings dewatering, Tailings Legal Reform, Tailings Risk Management, TSF Design & Management Standrds, Upstream Tailings Dam Safety. Bookmark the permalink.

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