Vale Receives Notice from SEC Ahead of Potential Probe

Author/Contact Lindsay Newland Bowker compiler@worldminetailingsfailures.org

DATE: October29,2021

RE:https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/brazils-vale-receives-notice-us-sec-ahead-potential-probe-2021-10-28/

The recently released Brazil Prosecutors cause of failure report http://www.mpf.mp.br/mg/sala-de-imprensa/docs/2021/relatorio-final-cinme-upc-1) co authored by top experts on liquefaction has a bearing on the potential SEC probe.


The narrative the SEC is acting on is the narrative pushed by the Wall Street Journal and NGO’s mostly out of a misunderstanding of the documents in the Brazil Prosecutors records.  Principally, the WSJ reporters and the NGO’s didn’t understand that an extreme or high hazard potential is not the same as an extreme or high actual risk.


The dam’s extreme fragility was recognized and the work underway which, according to the new report by Gens and Arroyo, triggered the failure, was part of a stabilizng program that had already achieved small but measurable effects.  It was not work undertaken with disregard for the risks of undertaking it.


Nonetheless, the SEC probe is an important step towards laying out what needs to be addressed so that the industry, with support from licensing Governments , investors and insurers, has room to reconfigure itself to better knowledge and better practice on TSF stability and to de risk what cannot be left as is.


Tractebel was fired by Washington Pirete for refusing to certify TSF stability. Pirete,  was primary promoter and guardian of Vale’s wrong approach to dam stability assessment and statutorily mandated reporting,  Pimenta de Avila before Tractebel had questioned Vale’s geotechnical protocols.  Scott Olson as consultant had already told Vale that their Pirete based geotechnical program was an incorrect application of their methodology(based on Olson 2001) resulting in false conclusions. 


That was all reaffirmed by Vale’s own in- house cause of failure report by one of the top geotechnical teams in the world. 


Vale responded by stopping all depositions at the TSF and was engaged in a multi -year effort to de water and stabilize the facility for a planned major re mining of it.


Could the application of better stability analysis protocols such as those used in the Brazil Prosecutors recently released cause of failure report  provided a better basis for decision making on what stabilizing procedures were safe to undertake?


 Maybe, yes. That is a question for Gens and Arroyo.


Without question, a finite element run may have definitively identified the dam as hovering on the very edge of failure despite the small signs of progress. Use of finite element analysis as used by Gens and Arroyo after the fact,  may have resulted in a shift to first  make down stream communities and the hundreds of employees using the administrative building safe before proceeding with further de risking, further stabilization.


Many, many active and abandoned TSF’s all over the world with poor hydraulics are recurringly re-saturated and reside in a vulnerable state of saturation with extreme susceptibility to flow failure until the saturation slowly dissipates.  During that time of extreme saturation a very small change exerting very minor stresses or vibrations can set off a flow failure as happened at Brumadinho.


According to the Brazil Prosecutor report by renowned liquefaction experts Gens and Arroyo, the measures Vale was undertaking under TUV SUD’s direction urging extreme caution were beginning to move toward an improved stability condition. 


 It was just too late.


To move past this present world portfolio wide crisis of too may old upstream dams with poor hydraulics we don’t need law suits we need solutions..workable strategies for managing TSFs which become super saturated We need tools, data and strategies for recognizing when its important to shift to accelerated downstream protections and when it is safe and in what form de risking can be initiated. 

Vale is middle of the pack per the Responsible Mining Foundation’s score on responsible mining practices. That is the reality we must all come around to working on together.


Burning Vale at the stake as some sort of aberrant lone bad actor is not going to make the world portfolio of TSF’s any safer and it’s not going to protect those host communities now downstream from dozens of equally vulnerable large dams world wide  in a state as vulnerable as Brumadinho was.


The “Global Standard” made a huge huge mistake in not making  identification of existing at risk dams and their de-risking a top prioritiy.  


There is no such thing as recovery from a catastrophic TSF failure lacking downstream protections , diversions and berms.


No amount of money can make a TSF failure inundated area “clean” for viable life-supporting future use.


We can though afford loss prevention but parking it all at the door of mine operators is not the answer.

Present risk was co-created by investors, insurers, lenders, and most of all governments who chose revenue and jobs over host community security and are still making that choice every day..look at Zelazny Most .  Look at Kumtor. Look at the Philippines.

Lindsay Newland Bowker, Executive Director

World Mine Tailings  Failures

compiler@WorldMineTailingsFailures.org

+1 207 367 5145

www.worldminetailingsfailures.org

About lindsaynewlandbowker

Bowker Associates, Science & Research In The Public Interest, is an independent non profit providing self initiated pro bono analysis on key issues with a potential for massive adverse environmental impact . Bowker Associates has been an internationally recognized and cited voice in analysis of all significant tailings failures since 1915 mainly through and for reserach insittute World Mine Tailings Failures. In 2017 Lindsay Bowker was princial author of her third major work on the economics of tailings failures. Bowker, L.N.; Chambers, D.M. In the Dark Shadow of the Supercycle Tailings Failure Risk & Public Liability Reach All Time Highs. Environments 2017, 4, 75. http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/4/4/75 A peer reviewed journal published investigation of the cowboy economics of the supercycle and the resulting escalation on the number and magnitude of catastrophic failures. Ms. Bowker was principal author of two other seminal works one looking at root causes of failures Bowker, L.N.; Chambers, D.M. Root Causes of Tailings Management Failures: The Severity of Consequence of Failures Attributed to Overtopping 1915–2015. In Proceedings of the Protections 2016, Fort Collins, CO, USA, 14 June 2016. [Google Scholar] In 2015 Bowker Associates compiled all known accouns of all TSF faiures in recorded history analyzing these data in the context of global mining economics 1910-2010 ( Risk, Economics and Public Liability of TSF Failures, Bowker/Chambers July 2015) The third annual update of this globally referenced and used compilation was just released at Researchgate. (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324594429_World_Tailings_Dam_Failures_From_1915_-_as_of_Mar_31_2018) In 2014 Bowker Associates commissioned Dr. David Chambers to undertake two technical works: (1) development of technical go no go criteria for vetting mine applications tp://lindsaynewlandbowker.wordpress.com/2014/01/05/a-new-statutory-regulatory-framework-for-responble-sulfide-mining-should-this-mine-be-built/ and (2) a case study of Maine's Bald Mountain, an un mined low grade high risk VMS deposit demonstrating the efficacy and accuracy of two risk assessment tools in vetting mine proposals https://lindsaynewlandbowker.wordpress.com/2014/02/28/mountain-x-would-you-issue-a-permit-to-this-mine/ In Maine, Bowker Associates has deeply engaged and been a public voice in the Searsport DCP LPG Tank, The Cianbro proposal for a Private East West Toll Road, JD Irvings rolling pipeline of Bakken crude to its plant in St. John and review of Phase II plans at The Callahan Superfund site in Brooksville, Maine, and Maine's revisitation of mining in statute and regulation... Our only “client”: is always “the pubic interest”. Our model is to focus on only one or two issues at a time so that we have a substantive command of the relevant field as our foundation for ongoing engagement. Our core work is in envirommental risk management, science and technology as well as bringing any available “best practices” models to the fore. The legal and regulatory history/best models are also a major thrust of our work in building and evaluating public policy. Director/Principal Lindsay Newland Bowker, CPCU, ARM is a recognized expert in Environmental Risk Management., Heavy Construction Risk Management and Marine and Transit Risks and has more than 3 decades of engagement in buiding public policy. Appointed by Governor Mario Cuomo to New York State Banking Board (served 1986-1996); President New York Chapter Chartered Property and Casualty Insurers; Environmental Committee, Risk and Insurance Management Society; Director, Convenor/Co-Chair Bermuda Market Briefing "From Captive to Cats" Hamilton Bermuda. Published Articles of Significance The Risk Economics and Public Liability of Tailings Facility Failures, co-authored with David M. Chambers, July 2015 Beyond. Polarization: Superfund Reform in Perspective, Risk & Insurance Managing Risk For Loss Prevention & Cost Control (Jan. 24, 1997). Lead Hazards and Abatement Technologies in Construction: A Risk Management Approach CPCU Journal 1997 Employee Leasing: Liability in Limbo Risk Management June 1 1997 Environmental Audit Privilege and the Public interest Risk & Insurance Managing Risk For Loss Prevention & Cost Control, April 1997 Asbestos:Holes In Abatement Policies Need To Be Plugged, Lloyd’s Environmental Risk International, May 1993 Editor Published Letters Evironmental Risk Management Beware of Facile Policies Like Fetal Protection Business Insurance 1995(?) High Court Review May Increase Sale of Bank Annuities Business Insurances August 8, 1995 Professional Profiles Protecting the Big Apple’s Core Managing Risk For Loss Prevention & Control December 1996 Major Career Highlights First rigorous analysis showing Relationship Between declining ore grades and TSF Failures of increasing consequence ( July 2015) FIrst Documentation that Gentrification Has Same Impacts as Unassisted Displacement from Urban Renewal Sites Direted Court Ordered EIS of FHA Mortgage Scandal Created Nation's First Homeownership Program for Low Income People (SHIP) Created Earliest Geographic Information Systems Using Defense Technology Developed By IBM Designed and Conducted Parallel Census Count to Show Systematic undercount in minority neighborhoods Documented Bias in ISO Territory Rating Plans for Private Passenger Auto Insurance Using ISO's own Rating Techniques Demonstrated Inherent Bias in Mortgage Policies of Banks With Inner City Branches Demonstrated that NY Telephones Plan for Area Code Split To accommodate anticipated cell phone demand was not efficient and would exhaust in 5 years ( which it did) Undertook First Systematic Evaluation of Child Protective Services Caseload Using Multi Variate Analyic Techniques Developed Child Protective Caseload Management and Tracking System (CANTS) and directed implementation in 4 client states including Illinois, Florida and New York Created and Ran Office of Risk Management for NYC DEP the Nations largest Water & Sewer Authority . Designed, Created and Administered Nation's First Owner Controlled Insurance Program (OCIP)for High Risk Tunneling Education Masters NYU Graduate School of Public Administration BSC New School For Social Research Maine Public Schools Deering High School
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